Munich – October 29, 2026 -- Home buyers in the euro area should not expect cheaper or pricier mortgages right away: the European Central Bank (ECB) held its key interest rate at 2.5 percent, and ten-year building loan rates recently stood at around 4.4 percent.
Mortgage rates follow capital markets, not the ECB directly
Building loan rates track long-term capital market rates more closely than the ECB's key rate. Expected central bank moves can therefore already be priced into loan terms before the ECB announces a decision.
Eight in ten banks expect no change
The latest Interhyp bank panel points mostly sideways. For the next one to two months, 80 percent of the surveyed institutions expect unchanged mortgage rates, while 20 percent expect falling terms. No panel member currently expects a short-term increase.
One panelist noted that markets have already priced in several possible ECB rate hikes.
Interhyp CEO advises against waiting for the perfect moment
Jörg Utecht, CEO of Interhyp Group, said the pause alone should trigger little movement in mortgage rates, since capital markets have already anticipated a good part of further steps. For buyers, the trend in long-term capital market rates matters more than any single ECB decision.
Utecht advised buyers who have found a suitable property not to wait for the ideal rate timing. The key question is whether the property and its financing fit their budget over the long term. At the currently elevated rate level, he said, it pays to compare offers and financing models carefully.