Madrid – September 7, 2026 -- Getting into the world's most coveted outdoor events now requires patience measured in years, not months, according to a new report from travel agency Jade Peak.
The New York Marathon accepted just 1% of applicants this year
Jade Peak's first "Access Index" found that the New York Marathon's public lottery drew 240,000 applicants but selected only 1% of them. At current demand levels, the report estimates it would take up to 18 years to secure a rafting permit through the Grand Canyon.
The index tracked over 300 activities across 90 countries
The report, titled "Dream Lists Are Now Waitlists," analyzed dozens of trips and expeditions based on cost, entry requirements, and how long it takes for spots to sell out.
Nine out of ten U.S. national parks charge the same entry fee as in 2020
"For U.S. residents, nine out of ten national parks charge the same entry fee as they did in 2020," said Marina Herraiz, co-founder of Jade Peak. "Given inflation, that actually amounts to a price decrease in real terms."
Some organizers double ticket odds for repeat applicants
Herraiz advised travelers to seek out events that reward persistence. She noted that some organizers offer programs where the number of tickets allocated doubles for each consecutive year an applicant enters without winning.
Jade Peak also released a guide for event organizers
Alongside the report, Jade Peak published a companion guide aimed at helping event organizers manage demand. "This is a living document that we hope to update in collaboration with event organizers," said Ian Zhang, co-founder of Jade Peak. "Our goal is to define fair and equitable standards for years to come."
The report, dataset, and accompanying charts are available for free reuse under a CC BY 4.0 license, provided the source is credited.