Grand Canyon

Madrid – September 7, 2026 -- Getting into the world's most coveted outdoor events now requires patience measured in years, not months, according to a new report from travel agency Jade Peak.

The New York Marathon accepted just 1% of applicants this year

Jade Peak's first "Access Index" found that the New York Marathon's public lottery drew 240,000 applicants but selected only 1% of them. At current demand levels, the report estimates it would take up to 18 years to secure a rafting permit through the Grand Canyon.

The index tracked over 300 activities across 90 countries

The report, titled "Dream Lists Are Now Waitlists," analyzed dozens of trips and expeditions based on cost, entry requirements, and how long it takes for spots to sell out.

Madrid – September 07, 2026 -- Getting into the world's most sought-after outdoor events and expeditions has become a numbers game, according to a new report from travel publisher Jade Peak. The New York City Marathon accepted just 1% of its 240,000public lottery applicants this year, and at current demand, booking a Grand Canyon rafting permit could take up to 18 years.

Jade Peak released the first edition of its Access Index, titled "Wish Lists Are Now Wait Lists," cataloging more than 300 outdoor activities across 90 countries. The report analyzed dozens of trips using cost, qualification standards, and how quickly slots sell out.

Lottery odds are shrinking while entry fees stay flat

The report found that public lottery odds for many events are declining even as prices remain largely unchanged. Nine out of ten U.S. national parks charge the same entry fee today as they did in 2020, according to Jade Peak co-founder Marina Herraiz.