Madrid – September 07, 2026 -- Getting into the world's most sought-after outdoor events and expeditions has become a numbers game, according to a new report from travel publisher Jade Peak. The New York City Marathon accepted just 1% of its 240,000public lottery applicants this year, and at current demand, booking a Grand Canyon rafting permit could take up to 18 years.
Jade Peak released the first edition of its Access Index, titled "Wish Lists Are Now Wait Lists," cataloging more than 300 outdoor activities across 90 countries. The report analyzed dozens of trips using cost, qualification standards, and how quickly slots sell out.
Lottery odds are shrinking while entry fees stay flat
The report found that public lottery odds for many events are declining even as prices remain largely unchanged. Nine out of ten U.S. national parks charge the same entry fee today as they did in 2020, according to Jade Peak co-founder Marina Herraiz.
"In real terms, this represents a price reduction against inflation," Herraiz said.
Repeat applicants get priority through escalating entry systems
Herraiz advises travelers to target events that reward persistence. Some organizers run special tracks for repeat applicants, where a person's number of entries doubles with each consecutive year they apply and don't get selected.
Jade Peak pushes new fairness guidelines for organizers
Alongside the index, Jade Peak published its Event Organizer Guidelines, a living document co-founder Ian Zhang said the company plans to update in collaboration with event organizers over time.
"Our goal is to define fair and equitable standards for years to come," Zhang said.
The report, dataset, and accompanying charts are freely available for reading and reuse with attribution under a CC BY 4.0 license. Jade Peak, based in Madrid, states it has no financial relationship with any entity mentioned in the report and accepts no payment for inclusion, ranking, mention, or exclusion.