Ta'Xbiex, Malta – October 06, 2026 -- The Swedish Academy will announce the winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature on Thursday, October 8, and betting company Betsson currently lists Chinese experimental writer Can Xue as the frontrunner at odds of 5.00.
Canadian poet Anne Carson follows at 7.00, with Australian novelist Gerald Murnane third at 8.00. Betsson's list covers roughly 40 authors worldwide, with Asian writers featuring prominently alongside Can Xue, including Amitav Ghosh at 9.00.
Can Xue has topped Betsson's odds before, in 2023
The author, widely considered China's leading experimental writer, has repeatedly figured among Nobel contenders over the past decade. Betsson has run odds on the Literature Prize for more than ten years.
Betsson's top three have often predicted recent winners
Last year's laureate, László Krasznahorkai, held the second-lowest odds before his win was announced. Jon Fosse was also second-favourite before receiving the prize, Annie Ernaux ranked third in her winning year, and Louise Glück sat among the leading contenders before her 2020 win.
Robin Olenius, Head of PR at Betsson, said authors who draw strong backing from both literary critics and bettors -- citing Can Xue, Anne Carson and Gerald Murnane as current examples -- tend to remain top contenders across multiple years, while commercially prominent names can spike into the top five only to drop off afterward.
The prize has also delivered major surprises
Neither Bob Dylan nor Han Kang ranked among the betting favourites before their wins. Abdulrazak Gurnah's 2021 victory marked an even bigger upset, as he wasn't listed in the betting market at all.
Further down Betsson's list, César Aira and Cristina Rivera Garza sit at 9.00 and 11.00 respectively, while Thomas Pynchon, Jamaica Kincaid and Alexis Wright are tied at 13.00. Longtime contenders Haruki Murakami and Salman Rushdie are both priced at 19.00.