Los Angeles – September 17, 2026 -- NOAA forecasters say there is a greater than 90% chance the current El Niño will become very strong during fall and winter 2026-27, with a 69% chance it could exceed every El Niño measured since 1950. The warning comes as Farmers Insurance urges homeowners and business owners to review coverage before severe weather hits.
El Niño forms when parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean warm well above normal, shifting the jet stream that steers U.S. storm patterns. A strong event can bring heavy rain, flooding, powerful storms, landslides and dangerous winter weather, though impacts vary by region and are not guaranteed everywhere. The pattern typically recurs every two to seven years and lasts up to 12 months; the most recent one ran from 2023 to 2024.
Flood damage typically isn't covered by standard homeowners policies
"A flood can be devastating for a family or business," said Jeff Hinesly, Flood Director at Farmers. "Discovering afterward that the damage is not covered can make an already difficult situation even harder." Many flood policies include a waiting period, meaning coverage bought once a storm is imminent may not apply in time.
Wet winters can fuel wildfire risk months later
Increased rain or snow from a strong El Niño can boost grass and brush growth in spring. If that vegetation dries out during hot summer weather, it can add fuel for wildfires later in the year, according to Farmers. Bobby Massey, Head of Catastrophe Claims at Farmers, said this year has already seen significant wildfire activity nationwide, and risks may keep evolving well beyond fall and winter.
Farmers lists eight preparedness steps for households
The insurer recommends confirming roof condition and updating policies after replacement, reviewing dwelling coverage against current rebuilding costs, and understanding flood risk given National Flood Insurance Program coverage limits. Other steps include knowing deductible amounts, reviewing comprehensive car coverage for weather damage, clearing gutters and downspouts, creating a home inventory with photos and serial numbers, and checking additional living expense coverage for temporary housing needs.
Farmers backs nonprofits across the disaster response chain
The company sponsors organizations including Strongward, which focuses on long-term recovery; Operation BBQ Relief, which serves meals to disaster-affected communities and first responders; Project:Camp, which sets up safe spaces for children after disasters; and the American Red Cross, which provides shelter and emergency assistance nationwide. "Recovery is stronger when communities have support before, during and after a disaster," Massey said.