Churchill Downs – October 29, 2026 -- Daily Racing Form handicapper Scott Ehlers has named Social Belle in Race 9 as his best bet on Thursday's October 29 card at Churchill Downs, projecting a 1-2-3 finish of Social Belle, Mobula and Grade A.
Social Belle bounced back from a bad start at Keeneland
Ehlers notes that Social Belle had improved her Beyer speed figure in every race until her return start at Keeneland. She broke 10th of 12 there, which cost her, though she still passed a few runners. Rodriguez, her winning rider, returns for her second grass start, and Ehlers calls the race flow more than fair.
Mobula, the second choice, moves from one top barn to another. Ehlers describes her as a hard-trying filly bred for a turf sprint, with Tomlinson numbers of 360/402, and she draws outside the main pace rivals.
Grade A rounds out the top three. She finished third, beaten only a neck, in her local turf debut at 18-1. She was denied a clean start in her second try and didn't care for two turns in her third. Ehlers says she can fire fresh and has solid works.
Ehlers picks a first-time starter to open the card
In Race 1, Ehlers likes Mr. Tallymon, a debut runner by a sire who is 21% with first-time starters, trained by a barn that is 21% with debut maidens. Quentin B and Bright Skittle follow.
In Race 2, he takes Spencerian, who cuts back a full furlong to six furlongs. Ehlers says a 77 Beyer should beat the par of 73 for the level. Taqdeer and Musical Prayer complete the top three.
Reza leads a Race 3 trio of turf-minded runners
Ehlers picks Reza, whose connections shipped in to run for more money and whose team is 21% with first-time turfers. Ruiva has the best figures but is cross-entered for Breeders' Cup day, so her participation is uncertain. Cactus Closer is third.
Class drops and debuts shape the middle of the card
Race 4 brings Getting After It, Mustang Lady and Watershed Moment, who took twelve starts to break her maiden. In Race 5, Ehlers picks Big Luz, an Indiana-bred who dropped in class instead of shipping to Horseshoe Indy to face state-breds. Her barn is 18% with second-time maidens. Boss Lady Kar and Texas Dandelion follow.
Race 6 goes Paseo, Charm of Venice and Struck at Midnight. Ehlers notes Struck at Midnight saves ground with Mr. Ortiz up, who is 24% for team Sharp. In Race 7, Guardian has gotten the lead at the first call in each of his last five starts. White Whale, who is 2 for 8 at Churchill and 0 for 11 elsewhere, and Stay for the Boom complete the trio.
Positano John debuts after a bullet work
In Race 8, Ehlers picks Positano John, who worked second best of 27 on October 9 and followed with a bullet work on October 16. We Be Mischief, who cost $575,000, and Alworth follow. In Race 10, Wavefront, with Jose in the saddle (30% for this barn), is ahead of Elvis Tony and Mayweather.