Wish Lists Are Now Wait Lists: The Odds of Scoring a Spot at Top Outdoor Events
Madrid – September 07, 2026 -- Getting into the world's most sought-after outdoor events and expeditions has become a numbers game, according to a new report from travel publisher Jade Peak. The New York City Marathon accepted just 1% of its 240,000public lottery applicants this year, and at current demand, booking a Grand Canyon rafting permit could take up to 18 years.
Jade Peak released the first edition of its Access Index, titled "Wish Lists Are Now Wait Lists," cataloging more than 300 outdoor activities across 90 countries. The report analyzed dozens of trips using cost, qualification standards, and how quickly slots sell out.
Lottery odds are shrinking while entry fees stay flat
The report found that public lottery odds for many events are declining even as prices remain largely unchanged. Nine out of ten U.S. national parks charge the same entry fee today as they did in 2020, according to Jade Peak co-founder Marina Herraiz.